“I believe that if we’re going to survive the PremierLeague here’s the Jaw-Dropping Math That could MAKE or BREAK Survival our chances”- Regis Le Bris Breaks down the mathematics of Sunderland’s PL survival bid

It might seem like an early prediction, but I firmly believe that for our survival this season, we must beat teams like Brentford, Bournemouth, Burnley, and Leeds at home, and take all three points at Wolves away. And rivalry aside, we can’t afford to leave St James’ Park without at least a point.

Here’s the reasoning: 35 points should be enough to guarantee safety.

Looking back at the past five seasons, 26, 27, 35, 36, and 29 points were sufficient for survival. So, the formula seems simple: one point per game. Of course, these points could come in a surge towards the end of the season (we’ve seen that before) or during a good patch of form earlier.

But one thing’s certain: it’s risky to go on a prolonged losing streak. Players lose confidence, fans start getting nervous (just look at the reaction to last week’s loss on social media), and the manager’s job comes under pressure. So, setting a realistic points target for each group of games is key.

Let’s break the season into five groups of five matches, with the final three matches being something of an outlier.

The last three matches are Manchester United (H), Everton (A), and Chelsea (H). I find it hard to imagine United still being in turmoil at the end of the season, Chelsea will likely be fighting for a European spot, and Everton away is always tricky—they may be fighting relegation too.

To keep things less stressful, let’s assume we need 35 points after 35 games. The goal should be to steadily work towards that target, aiming for 5 points in each set of five games.

Set One:

We’ve got three points already, and with Brentford (H), Crystal Palace (A), and Aston Villa (H) left, we need to get ahead of target here to make up for the tougher sets ahead. Beating Brentford is a must, and getting a point from Villa would be a solid result.

Set Two:

Nottingham Forest (A), Manchester United (A), Wolves (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (H). Wolves and Everton should struggle this season, and United are in a mess. So, 5 points from this set should be achievable.

Set Three:

Arsenal (H), Fulham (A), Bournemouth (H), Liverpool (A), Manchester City (A). The Bournemouth game is vital for points in this run.

Set Four:

Newcastle (H), Brighton (A), Leeds (H), Manchester City (H), Spurs (A). A derby win would be ideal, but a point is more realistic here, so the Leeds game is crucial for our survival.

Set Five:

Brentford (A), Crystal Palace (H), West Ham (A), Burnley (H), Arsenal (A). 5 points should be attainable, especially if we manage to beat Burnley.

Set Six:

Liverpool (H), Fulham (H), Bournemouth (A), Leeds (A), Brighton (H). We’ll need to build a buffer early in the season to cover potential losses in the tougher sets ahead.

Set Seven:

Newcastle (A), Spurs (H), Villa (A), Nottingham Forest (H), Wolves (A). Another challenging set, so we need to secure a win at either Newcastle (ideal) or Wolves away.

It’s always tricky predicting points in advance, especially with Sunderland. We’ve been known to lose games we should win, but also pull off unexpected victories—like at a place like Manchester City.

The final stretch of the season will be tough, so let’s hope we’re not left relying on last-minute heroics to stay up.