The worrying stats trend that Sunderland need to address in battle for Premier League survival

Sunderland’s Impressive Start Hides a Worrying Underlying Issue

Six points from their first three matches — every Sunderland fan would’ve gladly taken that ahead of the season’s first international break.

For a side returning to the Premier League after nearly a decade away, still integrating a host of new signings, the early fear was that they might falter straight out of the gate.

A difficult opening run could have thrown them straight into relegation trouble. Instead, they’re sitting sixth in the table, looking composed and confident — though tougher tests lie ahead.

And credit where it’s due: the Black Cats have earned their strong start. Against West Ham, they played with surprising assurance, dispatching Graham Potter’s sluggish side with ruthless efficiency.

In their most recent outing, a late winner against Brentford sealed three points after a performance marked by control, possession dominance, and nearly double the number of shots compared to their opponents.

Even in defeat against Burnley, Sunderland created enough danger to feel aggrieved. Missed golden chances from Eliezer Mayenda and Chemsdine Talbi could have flipped that match on its head.

But for all the positives, there’s a nagging concern emerging — one that could prove costly if left unaddressed.

According to FBRef, Sunderland’s expected goals (xG) total from their opening three games sits at just 3.0 — the fifth-lowest in the Premier League.

Strip out Enzo Le Fée’s penalty against Brentford, and their non-penalty xG drops to 2.21 — third-worst in the top flight.

Of course, xG isn’t gospel. It has its critics, and rightly so. Ultimately, football is judged by goals and points, not predictive metrics. You don’t get bonus points for high xG in a 1-0 defeat.

On the flip side, Sunderland have scored five goals from that 3.0 xG — meaning they’re finishing exceptionally well. They’re converting half-chances and making the most of their opportunities, which is exactly what good teams do.

Still, the low xG figures point to a clear issue: they’re not creating many high-quality chances. Despite their solid performances and encouraging results, Sunderland haven’t generated more than 1.0 xG from open play in any of their three matches.

For a team that wants to stay comfortably clear of the drop zone, that’s a statistic worth watching.

To be clear, there’s no need to panic. This is no harsh criticism of what has been a fantastic start to life back in the top flight. But it’s something head coach Régis Le Bris and his staff will surely be looking at behind the scenes.

If Sunderland can continue to score against the odds and grind out results, brilliant — long may it continue.

But if their luck in front of goal starts to fade, and they’re still struggling to carve out clear chances, then things could get a little more complicated.

For now, everything is going well. But improving their chance creation and boosting that xG would certainly make everyone at the club feel a little more comfortable.