adminHistory suggests Portsmouth FC may need around seven more points to secure their place in the Championship for another season.
With 10 games left, that target—roughly two wins and a draw—could be enough. However, this year’s relegation fight is unusually tight.
Just three points separated 23rd-placed West Bromwich Albion and 19th-placed Birmingham City ahead of the weekend, meaning John Mousinho and his side may need a slightly higher tally to be safe.
Looking at recent seasons, teams finishing just above the drop zone have averaged around 47 points. Including the disrupted 2019–20 campaign, that figure rises slightly.
Currently, Pompey sit on 40 points from 36 games—two fewer than most of their rivals—keeping survival well within reach.
Recent form, though, has made things harder. Wins away at Charlton Athletic and Millwall FC were followed by setbacks against Hull City and Swansea City, a loss at Wrexham AFC, and a frustrating draw with Blackburn Rovers after letting victory slip late on.
Those dropped points—especially the injury-time collapse and a late defeat at Fratton Park—prompted Mousinho to question his team’s mentality, accusing them of repeatedly undermining themselves.
They now face a crucial test against Derby County at Fratton Park, where Pompey haven’t won since beating West Brom on January 31. A victory could go a long way toward securing survival, especially as it would mark their first league win over Derby since 2008.
Beyond that, the run-in remains daunting, with fixtures against Queens Park Rangers, Norwich City, Oxford United, Middlesbrough FC, Ipswich Town, Leicester City, Coventry City, Stoke City, and a final-day clash with Birmingham. After taking just one point from their last four matches, none of these games can be considered straightforward.
Recent Championship trends underline how fine the margins are. Last season, Birmingham finished 16th on 54 points—five clear of danger—while Hull City narrowly avoided relegation with 49 points. In fact, 49 points has been enough to stay up in two of the last three seasons, while Plymouth Argyle needed 51 points to survive in 2023–24.
With no more than seven points separating bottom from safety in recent years, and teams like Oxford, Blackburn, Leicester, and West Brom all tightly packed, another dramatic finish looks likely.
Pompey’s fate is still in their own hands—but whether they have the composure to finish the job without further setbacks remains to be seen.
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